Prediction of future temperature using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in accessing climate change at catchment area Sungai Bekok, Batu Pahat

Abstract

The impact of climate change in hydrologic sector worsening. The continuation of this phenomenon significantly may alter global and local climate characteristics including temperature and rainfall. The objectives of this study are to downscale the present climate variables, to downscale the future climate variables and to predict the temperature and rainfall impact of climate change on Bekok reservoir in 2021 until 2050. In this study, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) has been adopted to downscale rainfall and temperature to generate future climate outputs for Bekok basin in Batu Pahat, Johor. 2 stations have been chosen as reference that provide rainfall data and 1 station for gaining temperature data. The prediction of future rainfall and temperature for the period 2030, 2040 and 2050. The results obtained from this study are acceptable because it done with calibration (2010-2015) and validation (2016-2020). Recommendation for future research are to use more rainfall stations and compare with different emissions to achieve greater reliability.