Prediction Of Future Temperature And Rainfall Characteristics Using Statistical Downscaling Model (Sdsm) For Ibu Bekalan Jelai Station In Kurau River Basin

Abstract

Events of environmental change and its effects on the water cycle

have emerged in the last decades. Temperature and frequent variability as

well as rainfall and flow patterns are rising, due to the impacts of climate

change. Bukit Merah is the centre of tourism (Bukit Merah Laketown Resort)

and farming (paddy irrigation). Nevertheless, climate change affects this

region as it is affected by low dry seasonal water levels and high quantities of

monsoon water causing floods. This work discusses the use of statistical

downscaling model (SDSM) in the Bukit Merah reservoir to forecast the

expected rainfall and climate changes. The SDSM was optimized and

developed for future possible scenarios climate factors such as temperature

and precipitation use GCMs (global climate models). The study forecast

estimated 10 years (2020-2030) of rainfall and temperature at the Bukit

Merah reservoir.